Real Madrid returns to the Santiago Bernabéu this midweek facing a complex psychological and physical crossroads. Following a grueling and ultimately heartbreaking exit from the Champions League at the hands of Bayern Munich, the focus shifts back to La Liga, where the title race is slipping away. With Barcelona holding a significant lead at the summit, the objective for the remainder of the season has transitioned from a desperate chase to a matter of pride and rhythm. Standing in their way is a Deportivo Alavés side that has found a second wind under new management, making the upcoming selection of starters a critical puzzle for Álvaro Arbeloa to solve.

The Real Madrid Context: Managing the Post-European Hangover

The mood in Valdebebas is reportedly somber but professional. Losing 6-4 on aggregate to Bayern was a bitter pill, especially considering the defensive lapses that occurred in the second leg. Arbeloa now has to balance the need for a convincing victory to appease the Bernabéu faithful with the reality of a squad showing signs of deep fatigue.

Injury news continues to dictate much of the selection process. Thibaut Courtois remains sidelined with a thigh issue, meaning the goalkeeping responsibilities fall once again to Andriy Lunin. While Lunin has been a reliable deputy, the lack of a clean sheet in recent outings is a statistic the coaching staff is keen to address. Furthermore, the absence of Rodrygo due to a knee injury limits the verticality on the right flank, while young defender Raúl Asencio’s recent hospital admission for a stomach ailment further thins the defensive ranks.

There is a strong indication that Arbeloa will look to refresh the backline. Antonio Rüdiger and Éder Militão have played heavy minutes, and with the high intensity of the Champions League fixtures still in their legs, we might see a shuffle. This match presents an opportunity for players like Dean Huijsen or Fran García to stake their claim for more regular starts as the season nears its conclusion.

Real Madrid Predicted Lineup: Stability vs. Freshness

It is anticipated that Real Madrid will stick to a variation of the 4-4-2 or a fluid 4-3-3, depending on how Arda Güler is deployed.

Goalkeeper: Andriy Lunin
In the absence of Courtois, Lunin is the undisputed starter. His distribution will be key against an Alavés side that might attempt to press high early on to capitalize on any lingering Madrid fatigue.

Defense: Carvajal, Militão, Huijsen, Carreras
Dani Carvajal is expected to retain his spot at right-back, providing the veteran leadership needed in a potentially rotated side. In the center, Éder Militão is nearing full match fitness and needs minutes to regain his peak form. Partnering him could be Dean Huijsen, allowing Rüdiger a much-needed rest. Álvaro Carreras is likely to start at left-back, offering more offensive overlap compared to Ferland Mendy, which is essential for breaking down a low block.

Midfield: Valverde, Tchouaméni, Bellingham, Arda Güler
Federico Valverde remains the engine room of this team. Having found his scoring touch again, his late runs into the box are a primary weapon. Aurélien Tchouaméni, who missed the midweek European clash through suspension, returns fresh and will anchor the midfield. Jude Bellingham will likely operate in his hybrid role, drifting between the lines to create overloads. The spotlight, however, remains on Arda Güler. The Turkish international has moved beyond "prospect" status to become a vital creative hub for the team, and his ability to unlock defenses with a single pass will be paramount.

Attack: Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé
Despite a frustrating run of games where the final touch has eluded him, Vinícius Júnior remains the team's chief instigator on the break. Alongside him, Kylian Mbappé continues his pursuit of the Pichichi trophy. With 23 league goals already, Mbappé’s movement in the channels will be the biggest threat Alavés has to neutralize. There is a slight chance Arbeloa could rest one of them for Brahim Díaz, but given the need for a "reaction" win, the heavy hitters are expected to start.

The Alavés Factor: Survival Instincts and Tactical Shifts

Deportivo Alavés arrives in Madrid as a team transformed. The appointment of Quique Sánchez Flores has seen a departure from the conservative, low-scoring draws of earlier in the campaign. Under Flores, "Los Babazorros" have embraced an attacking philosophy that has made them one of the most unpredictable teams in the bottom half of the table. Their recent 3-3 draw against Real Sociedad is a testament to their newfound scoring prowess and defensive vulnerability.

For Alavés, the stakes are survival. Being just outside the relegation zone means every point is a lifeline. They will not come to the Bernabéu just to sit back; the evidence suggests they will look to exploit the spaces left by Madrid’s attacking full-backs. However, they must do so without some key components. Suspensions for Abde Rebbach and Facundo Garcés mean the visitors will have to adjust their defensive and wide setups.

Deportivo Alavés Predicted Lineup: A Balanced 5-3-2 or 4-4-2?

Flores has experimented with both a back five and a back four. Given the attacking quality of Real Madrid, a five-man defensive line seems the more pragmatic choice to narrow the spaces for Vinícius and Mbappé.

Goalkeeper: Antonio Sivera
Sivera has been one of the busier keepers in the league recently. His shot-stopping ability will be tested to the limit by Madrid’s high volume of attempts.

Defense: Tenaglia, Otto, Sedlar, Diarra, Parada
Nahuel Tenaglia and Jonny Otto will likely provide the defensive grit, while Victor Parada offers energy on the flank. The goal will be to stay compact and force Madrid to play through the congested middle rather than allowing them to exploit the wings.

Midfield: Antonio Blanco, Guevara, Guridi
Antonio Blanco, facing his former club, will have extra motivation to disrupt the rhythm of Bellingham and Valverde. The battle in the center will be physical, and Alavés will rely on Guevara’s ball retention to transition from defense to attack.

Attack: Lucas Boyé, Antonio Martínez
Lucas Boyé is the focal point. His physicality and ability to hold up the ball allow the midfield to join the attack. Antonio Martínez provides the secondary threat, often hovering on the shoulder of the last defender to exploit long balls.

Key Tactical Battles to Watch

1. The Güler Influence vs. Alavés Midfield Block
Arda Güler has become the player through whom most of Madrid’s creative play flows. If Alavés allows him time on the ball at the edge of the area, his vision will eventually find a gap. Antonio Blanco will likely be tasked with a shadow-marking role to limit Güler’s influence.

2. Mbappé’s Verticality vs. Alavés’ High Line
While Alavés has become more attacking, they have also become more susceptible to the counter-attack. Kylian Mbappé’s pace is a nightmare for any high line. If Flores instructs his team to press high, one misplaced pass could see Mbappé through on goal in seconds.

3. Valverde’s Late Runs
Fede Valverde has rediscovered his knack for long-range strikes and perfectly timed arrivals into the box. With Alavés focusing their attention on the "Galáctico" duo upfront, Valverde often finds himself unmarked in the second phase of the attack.

Form and Historical Context

Historically, the Bernabéu has been a fortress against Alavés. Real Madrid has won the majority of their recent head-to-head encounters, often by comfortable margins. However, the current context is different. Madrid is bruised from European disappointment and Alavés is fighting for their top-flight life.

Madrid’s recent league form has been patchy—a draw against Girona and a loss to Mallorca have allowed Barcelona to run away with the lead. Conversely, Alavés is on a four-game unbeaten streak. While the individual quality heavily favors the home side, the momentum of the two teams is trending in opposite directions.

Final Tactical Considerations

For Álvaro Arbeloa, this match is about more than just three points; it’s about restoring the team’s identity before the season concludes. He will be looking for a high-intensity start to settle the nerves of the crowd. For Alavés, the first 20 minutes are crucial. If they can weather the initial storm and keep the score level, the frustration in the stadium might play into their hands, allowing them to nick a goal on the break or from a set-piece.

The predicted lineups suggest a game of high technical quality but also one of significant physical demands. Real Madrid has the bench depth to change the game if things go stale—players like Brahim Díaz and Arda Güler are game-changers in their own right. Alavés will rely on collective discipline and the clinical nature of Lucas Boyé.

As we look toward the kickoff, the primary question remains: can Real Madrid put their European heartbreak behind them, or will a rejuvenated Alavés capitalize on the fatigue of the giants? The lineups chosen by Arbeloa and Flores will provide the first clue to that answer. Expect a match where Madrid dominates possession, but Alavés remains a constant, nagging threat on the counter-attack in what should be an open and entertaining encounter at the Santiago Bernabéu.